MEG:Short-term shock market

1) glycol futures are currently priced at 09 contract supply pressure, 05 contract although to depot, but the price is strong performance in 05 to 09 contract uplift. 09 contract pricing logic lies in supply pressure, so the unilateral price pressure logic subversion condition is able to prove that 09 contract supply gap, which has two ways. One requires the 09 contract to reach the cost reduction line, which has now touched the theoretical maximum cost line, but has not touched the cost line of most installations. The second is to speculate from reality that the 09 contract will have a supply gap in the future. The current coal chemical overhaul and part of the oleochemical plant conversion caused by glycol supply decline, but the return of imports under the inventory has not fallen, can not falsify the 09 contract supply surplus.

(2) strategy, 09 contract in the current stalemate, the high short selling operation. Reference EG2109 contract 4500 yuan support level.

 


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