methanol: range oscillation, sell short at high

1) On Monday, methanol rebounded slightly mainly. The delayed arrival of a ship on Monday led to a short-covering in the paper market under 4, which in turn triggered a rally. Our view is unchanged. At present, the market can not falsify the 09 contract supply pressure. To falsify the methanol 09 contract supply pressure only two points: one is the price to the cost line, which is currently not reached. Secondly, from a realistic point of view, there is a supply gap for methanol in the 09 contract in the future, which cannot be confirmed at the moment even with the recovery of domestic production and the impact of imports.

2) Strategy. Reference MA2109 contract 2200 yuan support, 2500 yuan pressure, range operation, 2400 above the short side.


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