PF:Rebound in Short Term, While Spot Market Still Presents Negative Feedback

The negative feedback has not finished yet. Although it is May that is the climax of this very phenomenon, there is not much room for decline. After May Day, there is a high likelihood for reducing operating load and accumulating inventory for the polyester staple fiber factories. The most outstanding factories in the field has already reduced their operating load and continued to increase maintenance in May. So does the best-selling varieties previously in the market. Although some individual factories still enjoy negative inventory levels, they have actually accumulated more than 10 days of inventory, changing from -50 days to -40 days. Downstream yarn factories are still fully stocked. There are no needs to stock up in early May and only a small number of purchases will be conducted out of rigid demands. Although the negative feedback has stepped into the final climax, the prices have already reacted in advance and there is not too much room for further decline. In the near future, we should pay attention to the time point when the market enters into positive feedback. From the current viewpoint, the information such as the cotton price hypoed by the market, Indian order backflow and so forth, is not sound enough to support the starting of positive feedback. The issue of factory maintenance in May is being hypoed by the spot market. The rise driven by supply contraction will never last long and terminal demands has not been improved yet. It is common to see volatile market in May.

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