LLDPE: SHORT-TERM OSCILLATION

Analysis of market conditions】:

First of all, the enthusiasm for downstream purchases has rebounded recently, and short-term futures should not be chased short. However, in the recent period of time, South China has once again restricted electricity, restricting downstream operations, resulting in downstream manufacturers being forced to reduce orders, and it is difficult to see continued expansion for the time being. The contradiction between supply and demand in South China is prominent, and policy factors will restrain the rise of raw material prices. Short-term shocks or slight rebounds.

Second, the supply side of the first half of 2021 after April began to enter the peak maintenance period, but the new capacity pressure. Ningbo Huatai 400,000 tons of full density plant, Haiguo Long oil and Satellite Petrochemical new plant plans to output finished products to the market in early May. It is expected that there will be about 25-28% of new production capacity put into the market throughout the year. On the supply side PE will increase significantly in 2021. A significant increase in supply will lead to a continued weak basis. Only after the expansion of demand in the second half of the year, the terminal industry to expand their own inventory levels, in order to gradually digest the current capacity pressure. Especially during the market rally in late April-early May, we see that the terminal industry has failed to follow the PE prices to climb significantly, and the downstream is obviously weaker than the polyolefin industry itself, which is not the pattern of a sustained rising industry. Therefore, we still define the current market as an oscillating market, which is a period of decline and will still rise after the third quarter.

        Third, fiscal easing, monetary easing, and inflation are major trends, and there should not be too much hesitation. In the off-season of the first half of 2021, terminal demand will not be able to expand further, leading to a decline in terminal operating rates and reduced stockpiling, which may cause commodity prices to weaken in the second quarter. However, the inflation pattern in the second half of the year will continue to support commodity prices.


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