LLDPE: SHORT-TERM SHOCKS

Analysis of market conditions】:

First of all, the recent market low-priced sources of goods have a good deal, but recently, South China has once again restricted electricity, restricting downstream operations, causing downstream manufacturers to be forced to reduce orders, and it is difficult to see continued expansion for the time being. The downstream is still in the off-season. Although the price of polyethylene is relatively low, it still cannot stimulate a large number of downstream replenishment. Therefore, the downstream generally maintains a low inventory level and purchases according to rigid demand. Short-term shocks.

Second, in the first half of 2021, the supply side began to enter the peak period of overhaul after April. Although there were continuous new overhaul devices in May, the current loss of production capacity was not as good as the restarted capacity of the previous overhaul devices, superimposed on the newly added capacity and put into production, and the short-term supply tended to be increase. From the perspective of the supply side, the supply of PE will increase significantly in 2021, and the substantial increase in supply will cause the basis to continue to be weak. Only after the expansion of demand in the second half of the year, the terminal industry to expand their own inventory levels, in order to gradually digest the current capacity pressure. Especially during the market rally in late April-early May, we see that the terminal industry has failed to follow the PE prices to climb significantly, and the downstream is obviously weaker than the polyolefin industry itself, which is not the pattern of a sustained rising industry. Therefore, we still define the current market as an oscillating market, which is a period of decline and will still rise after the third quarter.

      Third, fiscal easing, monetary easing, and inflation are major trends, and there should not be too much hesitation. In the off-season of the first half of 2021, terminal demand will not be able to expand further, leading to a decline in terminal operating rates and reduced stockpiling, which may cause commodity prices to weaken in the second quarter. However, the inflation pattern in the second half of the year will continue to support commodity prices.


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