First of all, the recent market has been volatile, and the short-term rebound is driven by factors such as RRR cuts, but for the time being, it is still treated with shocks. Although the medium-term market may gradually strengthen, it is best not to chase higher. The current market demand pattern is also changing over time, so even if there is an adjustment in the later period, it is by no means a pattern of continuous decline in the first half of the year. It should be regarded as a phase adjustment of a mid-term rise.
Second, in the past two months, there have been two centralized replenishments in the spot market, but they have failed to provide substantial support to the market. Due to the prolonged downstream procurement cycle, a low inventory operation mode has been adopted. The supply side is further put into production, and it is expected that about 16% of the new capacity will be put into the market throughout the year. On the supply side, PP will increase significantly in 2021. A substantial increase in supply will result in a continued weak basis. Only after the demand expansion in the second half of the year, the terminal industry expands its own inventory level, can gradually absorb the current pressure on production capacity. With the accumulation of orders for BOPP and other related industries and the possible return of the output of auto and other industries in the later period, we should not be too pessimistic about the second half of the year.
Third, fiscal easing, monetary easing, and inflation are major trends, and there should not be too much hesitation. In the off-season of the first half of 2021, terminal demand will not be able to expand further, leading to a decline in terminal operating rates and reduced stockpiling, which may cause commodity prices to weaken in the second quarter. However, the downstream demand of PP remains stable in the second half of the year, and the order execution period in the second half of the year will drive the recovery and strengthening of PP.
Although it rebounds in the short term, it is still a shocking market for the time being. In the future, the pressure on the top of 09 is 8650-8700, and the short-term support is below 8300 and 8100.