LLDPE: IT IS NOT SUITABLE TO CHASE HIGH IN THE SHORT TERM, AND THE MEDIUM-TERM TREND IS RELATIVELY STRONG

Analysis of market conditions】:

First of all, the dual-control production reduction market is suspected of over-interpretation. At present, only a 50% reduction in the production of 1.2 million tons in September can be implemented, and the impact is not significant. However, we must also pay attention to the spread between the recent month and the far month has continued to be strong, and the market price has also broken through the previous shock range. This is an important signal of tight market goods. In the spot trading structure, a large number of spot short futures were bought, and the positions were locked in the futures disk, which further caused the market to be tight.

Second, in the context of skyrocketing ocean freight and shortage of containers, there will always be a gap at the PE import side, which offsets the pressure of its capacity expansion, and the shortage of goods in the market results in a strong PE spread. At the same time, the supply-side inventory is low. According to our actual research, although the downstream demand is slightly under pressure, it has been stocking at a low level. Therefore, after experiencing supply expansion expectations in the third quarter, the market is still low in inventory, which means that the difficulty of falling has become a market consensus. This will further promote the enthusiasm for low-price stocking in the downstream. The subsequent expansion of transactions and other factors will be the spark that ignites the market.

Third, fiscal easing, monetary easing, and inflation are major trends, and there should not be too much hesitation. We need to see that the epidemic is there, and fiscal easing and monetary easing are there. The fiscal contraction in the first half of the year was affected by the previous strong inflation expectations. With the re-emergence of deflation expectations, fiscal easing in the fourth quarter will continue in order to prevent economic stalls, resulting in a sharp increase in commodity prices in the fourth quarter.


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