Cost-driven weakening, it is not appropriate to chase high
Driven by dual control and rising raw material prices, TA, EG, and PF all experienced supply reductions, and the terminal entered the market before the holiday to replenish the stock, which gave birth to this wave of market rise. Then, the dual control will affect the terminal and the gather22ing. The impact of the ester link will gradually appear, especially the polyester and weaving factories in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and other places will successively curtail power and stop work and reduce production, superimposing the 11th holiday, and the driving force of the phased increase is weakening. The impact of dual control will be a long-term process. Strong expectations require actual orders and start-ups to support. We have not yet observed the arrival of this reality. It is recommended not to chase higher, and hold long PF short TA spreads to expand positions.
TA: Interval oscillating. The Hengli 2# device was unexpectedly shut down for maintenance. In October, there were many TA maintenance devices and the supply was limited. There is still a wave of replenishment behavior for the terminal before the National Day, but from the perspective of the dual-control effect, it is very lethal to the terminal and polyester. In some areas of Jiangsu, such as Suqian, Taizhou, Nantong and other places, water spraying, texturing, printing and dyeing factories have different levels of production restriction measures. The operating rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has dropped to about 60%, and the operating rate of polyester has dropped to 86%. In September, large polyester factories such as Xinfengming are also under pressure to stop work, and their start-ups will drop further. Continue to hold long PF short TA positions.