PTA:CONTINUE FALLING,LONG PF SHORT TA

Driven by the weakening of polyester demand, the entire industry chain continued its weak downward trend within the week. Among them, the polyester product end will be slightly stronger than the raw material operation, and polyester profit will expand. Crude oil prices met obstacles, coal prices were weak, MEG cost side support was insufficient, and continued to decline, and the monthly gap weakened; the basis of TA remained stable at around -70 yuan/ton, and the monthly gap fluctuated little; crude oil was driven downward, overseas EG The installation started down, and the import supply is expected to be less than expected. It is recommended to buy long EG short TA positions.

PTA: Costs are driven downward, and valuations will continue to fall. The market generally believes that the current TA valuation is low, the PX link suffers serious losses, and the TA processing fee is only 400-500 yuan/ton, and the atmosphere of bargaining is strong. PTA will continue to accumulate within the week. Under the influence of power curtailment measures, the operating rate of the downstream polyester plant gradually recovered to 85% under the power curtailment measures. PTA plant is expected to go to the warehouse when 4 million tons of equipment are undergoing maintenance in December. However, as oil prices are falling, terminal demand is poor, polyester filament prices are reduced for promotion, and production and sales have not increased. Therefore, the downward drive of TA has not changed for the time being. It is recommended to long PF and short TAand long 01 short 05.


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