LLDPE: THE DOWNTREND MAY NOT END

Analysis of market conditions】:

First of all, the current market time is not conducive to the bulls, and the trend is not conducive to the bulls is the biggest trouble. Standing at this time node in November, seasonal demand is declining step by step, especially in the face of the accumulation of inventory pressure during the Spring Festival and potential supply pressure. It is difficult for the market to continue to rebound. After the short-term replenishment of the market, the market transaction is still weak, the basis is difficult to continue to strengthen, the rebound is unsustainable, and it will continue to fall in the later period.

Second, in the later stage, we need to focus on the guidance of the monthly difference to the market. According to our actual survey, downstream demand has improved slightly after the power restriction measures were lifted, and downstream companies have intention to stock up in November. The key to the current fourth quarter is whether the squeeze of the energy crisis on the supply side will continue. If it continues, there will be a rebound in the fourth quarter, but there will be a high probability of a new round of decline in the first quarter of next year. Another possibility is that the current market is directly weak until the second quarter of next year. At this stage, it is not clear which trend the market chooses, but the end of the best rise in the year is clear, and the downward trend of polyolefins may have begun.

Third, in 2021, we have repeatedly emphasized that fiscal easing, monetary easing, and inflation are major trends. When the epidemic is present, inflation will be there. The current energy crisis interprets this pattern of inflation to the extreme. However, the market demand in the third quarter of 2021 has clearly been greatly suppressed. Especially in the context of repeated speculation on the energy crisis in the current market, the room for broad fiscal and currency has basically ended ahead of schedule. Therefore, we are pessimistic about the general trend in the later period, and the medium-term deflation pattern may be on the way.


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