LLDPE: FUTURES REBOUND IN THE SHORT-TERM, BUT THE MEDIUM-TERM TREND IS WEAK

Analysis of market conditions】:

First of all, the current market time is not conducive to the bulls, and the trend is not conducive to the bulls is the biggest trouble. Standing at this time node in November, seasonal demand is declining step by step, especially in the face of the accumulation of inventory pressure during the Spring Festival and potential supply pressure. It is difficult for the market to continue to rebound. After the short-term replenishment of the market, the market transaction is still weak, the basis is difficult to continue to strengthen, the rebound is unsustainable, and it will continue to fall in the later period.

Second, in the mid-term, the key is to see whether the dual energy consumption control and production reduction will resume in December; on the other hand, will there be new support policies or stimulus policies on the macro side. Before the emergence of the above two items, the market was still bearish. In the fourth quarter, when the peak season on the demand side ends and the off-season of the Spring Festival is approaching, there is greater pressure.

Third, in 2021, we have repeatedly emphasized that fiscal easing, monetary easing, and inflation are major trends. When the epidemic is present, inflation will be there. The current energy crisis interprets this pattern of inflation to the extreme. However, the market demand in the third quarter of 2021 has clearly been greatly suppressed. Especially in the context of repeated speculation on the energy crisis in the current market, the room for broad fiscal and currency has basically ended ahead of schedule. Therefore, we are pessimistic about the general trend in the later period, and the medium-term deflation pattern may be on the way.


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