LLDPE: THE REBOUND IS DIFFICULT TO CONTINUE, AND THE MID-TERM MARKET IS VOLATILE

Analysis of market conditions】:

First of all, the current market timing is not conducive to the bulls, and seasonal demand is declining step by step. Especially in the face of the accumulation of inventory pressure and potential supply pressure during the Spring Festival, the market is still in a weak pattern. The demand for agricultural film has weakened, and the demand for greenhouse film in the north has gradually ended, and the order volume has continued to decline. The demand for mulch film is slow to follow up, and the start of some factories is still low. The weak demand suppresses the room for rebound.

Second, As far as the medium-term market is concerned, there are many pressures at the moment. On the one hand, new production capacity on the supply side is put into production, on the other hand, there is demand pressure in the off-season. Some time ago, downstream bargain hunters consumed the buying of the entire market in advance, but the tight supply did not stimulate the market to rise. In the later stage, when the transaction is weak, the basis will continue to be weak, which will further promote the oversold of the entire industry chain. We have returned to the market pattern after the fourth quarter of 2018. The demand is weak, the market continues to reward oversold, further increasing the pressure on the market supply, and the medium-term price continues to be weak.

Third, in 2021, we have repeatedly emphasized that fiscal easing, monetary easing, and inflation are major trends. When the epidemic is present, inflation will be there. The current energy crisis interprets this pattern of inflation to the extreme. However, the market demand in the third quarter of 2021 has clearly been greatly suppressed. Especially in the context of repeated speculation on the energy crisis in the current market, the room for broad fiscal and currency has basically ended ahead of schedule. Therefore, we are pessimistic about the general trend in the later period, and the medium-term deflation pattern may be on the way.


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