LLDPE: FUTURES ARE WEAK IN THE SHORT-TERM AND FLUCTUATE IN THE MEDIUM-TERM

Analysis of market conditions】:

First of all, The current market timing is not conducive to the bulls, and seasonal demand is declining step by step. Especially in the face of the accumulation of inventory pressure and potential supply pressure during the Spring Festival, the market is still in a weak pattern. The demand for greenhouse film is expected to weaken further, and the demand for mulch film is slow to start. Industry starts are still expected to fall back, and weak demand suppresses the room for rebound. The trend is still weak.

Second, As far as the medium-term market is concerned, there are many pressures at the moment. On the one hand, new production capacity on the supply side is put into production, on the other hand, there is demand pressure in the off-season. The darkest moment of the current weak market pattern may be around the Spring Festival. The market terminal demand has not collapsed, but expectations are generally weak, and a large number of oversolds avoid the expected potential risks. But after the Spring Festival, the market may be a different picture. Demand is stable, downstream profits are neutral but low inventories and a large amount of supply is oversold. Instead, the market gradually stabilizes and rebounds after the end of January.

Third, In 2021, the commodity bull market brought about by the new crown epidemic will basically end.


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