【Analysis of market conditions】：
First of all, the core of the current market is that the downstream stocking is limited, the demand is weak, and it is difficult for the market to continue to rebound. Because the current market has neither a time safety margin nor a space safety margin for the downstream market. There is uncertainty about the impact of public health events in the later stage, and terminal enterprises may have early holiday behavior, which is not suitable for large-scale downstream procurement and storage. Therefore, the short-term rebound of the market is difficult to sustain, and there is still pressure in the later period.
Second, the first half of 2022 will be a continuous shock mode. On the one hand, there is still a lot of pressure on the supply side to add new capacity. On the other hand, the attractiveness of low prices to the downstream still exists, but the willingness to receive goods at high prices is generally weak. The absolute result from continued supply-side expansion is only medium-term weakness in the basis. At the same time, after the prediction of replenishment after the Spring Festival in the later period is proved to be wrong, the market will also have obvious pressure, which is very similar to 2019.
Third, the commodity bull market brought about by the new crown epidemic in 2021 will basically end. Although the demand side may remain resilient in 2022, it is difficult to continue the pattern of strong supply and demand in 2020-2021. The supply expansion has led to a persistently weak basis, the market continues to be oversold, and the pressure continues to increase. Except for the spring replenishment and peak season purchases, which are expected to rebound, other periods may be weak. The general trend continues the deflation pattern.