PTA:OPEN SHORT POSITION
PTA: The demand feedback negatively, the cost(mainly Crude Oil price)collapse, PTA trend turned down,open short position. Spot supply is tight and the basis is strong, causing the 09 contract to be slightly stronger in the short term. However, the cost collapsed, and under the negative feedback of superimposed cloth demand, the spot moved closer to the futures. From the perspective of the medium-term trend, textile and apparel, as a post-cycle industry in real estate, will face greater pressure in the second half of the year. Under the background that real estate sales have not improved significantly, domestic demand of cloth is expected to be weak. With the end of the overseas replenishment cycle, it is difficult for textile and apparel exports to further stimulate polyester consumption. The inventory of polyester finished products is high, and the terminal orders are obviously weak year-on-year, which leads to a high probability of continuing negative feedback on the demand side in the second half of the year. On the supply side, Jiatong Energy put 2.5 million tons of PTA into operation from September to October, Dongying Weilian’s 2 million tons of PX and 2.5 million tons of PTA units were gradually put into operation before November, and Guangdong Petrochemical’s 2.6 million tons of PX units and Shenghong Refinery’s 4 million tons The PX plant will also be put into operation in the fourth quarter, and the 5 million-ton PTA plant of Hengli Petrochemical will be put into operation before the end of the year, and the supply of PX and PTA will gradually ease in the fourth quarter. The price of PX in the aromatics industry chain is still in a downward trend with the collapse of refined oil prices. In the current period, the willingness of traders to hold goods is declining, and gradually from the previous long position to the opposite, resulting in a large selling pressure in the spot market, driving the unilateral price down. Open short position.
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